Nate McMillan’s Leverage

Let’s rewind to July of this summer (I had yet to take over this blog at that time); a seemingly innocuous headline percolated through the sports media sites out of Portland: “Trail Blazers extend Nate McMillan’s contract through 2010-2011″.  Sounds good, an extension for McMillan, who’s almost universally recognized as one of the up-and-coming coaches in the league – but wait, 2010?  This “extension” is merely the Blazers picking up their option on McMillan’s original contract from 2005.  McMillan’s 4 years in Portland have been an ascension, a patient rise from a broken, losing team with selfish stars, declining public support, and a defense rated in the lower third of the league to one of the hottest franchises in professional sports.  Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard gets much of the credit for transforming the team from these base parts, but McMillan deserves and receives equal parts, praise.

Let’s be realistic.  The Trail Blazers are more than likely to be even more successful this year than last, and that’s saying something for a team that won 54 games last year.  Even a Houston Rocket fan would agree that Portland had as much or more talent than the team that beat them in the playoffs last year.  The big difference?  Maturity and playoffs experience.  Enter Andre Miller, a cerebral, team-oriented, and veteran player at arguably Portland’s greatest position of need.  Moreover, they’ve popped the cherry on playoff appearances, ending a streak of draft lottery stints that had hung imposingly over the franchise since 2003.  If they make good on this likelihood to improve even more this year, there will be several teams drooling over McMillan.  Unlike an NBA player, who must weigh the chances of severe injury when considering when to take a long-term contract, McMillan needs only look at the prospects for winning again in 2010.  In his department, his optimism is being vetted increasingly every day, as yet another NBA expert projects Portland as a dark horse and borderline contender for the upcoming season.

We don’t know the details, but you can bet that Portland has talked with McMillan about a real contract extension, one that would lock up his future in Portland for as long as breakout star Brandon Roy’s recent deal.  The fact that McMillan is merely coaching out his contract is telling.  It speaks to the fact that he already knows that he’ll have other options in 2011.  This sort of leverage will mean more money for McMillan, plus he’ll have the freedom to leave Portland if the situation isn’t as “rosy” in the Rose City as it appears to be currently.  Several big market franchises might be in the market for a new coach (throw the Lakers in this bin, as we know Jackson has mulled retirement already).  The bidding war for Nate could be quite active, so McMillan is setting himself up for a huge pay-day at the cost of very low risk.

Is McMillan going to be worth a huge contract?  He certainly has all of the aspects that are hard to find in a coach.  He has proven himself quite capable of developing youth.  The Blazers tied for the sixth best record in the league last year with the youngest average player age.  Nate has also shown the ability to coach and instill defense in a team, which is a highly sought-out trait for teams focused on winning in the playoffs.  Finally, and I believe most importantly, McMillan’s experience with the “Redeem Team” in the 2008 Olympics displayed his ability to work well with Superstars.  Players such as LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, and Dwyane Wade have all cited their love of McMillan in separate interviews, and on multiple occasions.  The ability to positively handle these sorts of NBA egos is perhaps the most coveted trait in a coach, and the one that will skyrocket McMillan’s value when he enters the “free agent market” for coaches in 2011.

Does this mean that Blazer fans should be worried?  I believe that there is cause for concern.  The Blazers know that a quality coach is a commodity worthy paying for, but the franchise has also displayed an increasing care for controlling costs (the poor economy definitely has had something to do with this), much like other NBA teams.  The Blazers will “match” offers for McMillan to a point, assuming he’d prefer to stay in Portland with all other factors (read: money) being equal, but it’s possible that a big market team will try to find that ceiling on how high Portland will be willing to spend.  It’s also possible that McMillan will choose another city or franchise even if Portland is willing to match.  He’s not “restricted” in any sense of the word after 2010-2011, so the risk is there.

That said, my gut predicts that Nate will use his leverage to maximize his pay-day, but in the end he’ll end up signing another contract with Portland.  The situation could not be any better when it comes to talent, potential, and character.  Nate himself has had a direct hand in choosing most of the current Portland roster, and I believe he feels a strong sense of ownership with respect to the destiny of this Portland team.  Other NBA teams will definitely enter the market for Nate, if only to drive up the final price that Portland will have to pay.  After all, this total will go towards the bottom line when it comes to Portland’s profitability (or lack thereof), which could keep the Blazers from entering the luxury tax range to sign another valuable free agent (or hurt them otherwise).  This is all a boon to Portland’s rivals even if they don’t snatch away the team’s prized coach, so expect the Blazers to have to pay through the nose for Nate next summer.  We can’t blame Nate McMillan for using his leverage.

What do you think?

Tags: Brandon Roy, Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Nate McMillan