Blazers Crystal Ball: Predicting 2009-10

I thought it would be fun to look at the upcoming schedule for Portland’s 2009-2010 season and predict how things will fall out.  This is purely for fun; I’m sure there’s going to be several surprises next year.  Let’s identify the key games and stretches as the Blazer’s battle for the Northwest Division title.  They had some trouble with a few specific teams last year; can we expect more of the same?

The schedule looks favorable to start the year, with a tough stretch in December.  Portland was incredible at home last year with a record of 32-7.  They just about broke even on the road, 20-21.  They put together two six-game win streaks, and they had a three-game losing streak last December.  There’s some similarities in the schedule this year (as one would expect, there’s only so many ways you can fly a team from the Northwest around the league).  All right, enough with the prelude; I’ll put my best estimate on how the year will fall out – here it goes:

There you have it.  I think Portland’s further maturity and some key additions from the off-season: Andre Miller, a rehabilitated Martell Webster, and a yet-to-be-acquired back-up power forward, will net the Blazers an additional 3 wins in 2009-2010.  I think this will make them Northwest Division champions and the 3 seed in the West, behind the L.A. Lakers and the San Antonio Spurs (the latter by way of tie-breaker).

The Trail Blazers should enter the season on a tear, have another tough December, and then blast through early January.  They might have one of the best records in the league at that point.  The latter half of January looks formidable, and that should even things out for Portland a little heading into the All Star break.  Look for Portland to make an adjustment at that point (more on that later).  Just like last year, I think they’ll end the season on a win streak, grinding out some huge wins in order to secure the Northwest Division crown and a top playoff seed in the West.  Optimistic?  Absolutely.  Realistic?  I think so, but you can be the judge.  Probing deeper, let’s look at some specific team-series of interest, given off-season moves and how they fared last year:

The Blazers have trouble with Dallas.  Jason Terry and Dirk Nowitzki absolutely kill them.  I think that’s going to change this year, but I don’t have a great justification for the claim.  If you watched the Portland/Dallas games last year, the Mavericks more or less owned them.  The Christmas day game in Portland was an embarrassment.  The Mavs humiliated Portland in the midst of an amazing, 54-win season, and I guess that’s where my gut sense originates that Portland will be out for payback this year.  I say the Blazers win the series 3-1 this year, including an emphatic win in Dallas on Dec. 22.

Last year Dallas killed the Blazers.  This year, I think that team is going to be New Orleans.  Chris Paul is an assassin, and he’ll continue to give Portland fits this year.  Nobody is talking much about the Hornets yet, but I really like what they did in acquiring Emeka Okafor this offseason.  They also have some great three point shooters that will torch the Blazers, most notably Peja Stojakovic and James Posey.  On the same note, I think the Blazers will have trouble with Phoenix again this year.  Like New Orleans, they have some great deep threats, and Steve Nash knows how to set them up perfectly.  Portland’s defense always seems to have trouble guarding the three point line…

Another team that befuddles Portland is Golden State.  Their hectic running game throws off the Blazers, who want to get into the half-court set and run actual basketball plays.  Again, one of Portland’s weaknesses has been perimeter defense, and the Warriors have an army of wings that can hit open three pointers.  All of these things will be true to some degree in 2009-2010.  Still, the addition of Andre Miller should help the Blazers be more effective against running teams.  He’ll help them make better decisions when a team like Golden State tries to disrupt them by speeding the pace of the game.  Portland should be able to forge a 2-2 series tie with the pesky Warriors.

The Blazers had trouble with Houston and Philadelphia in 2008-2009, but should master both this year.  They’ll sweep the Rockets, a completely different team from last year, and they’ll have Andre Miller in the red and black this time (he more or less beat them by himself last year).  Also, Philadelphia will be running the Princeton offense and working in the half-court more often with a healthy Elton Brand, two key differences that should encourage a pace amenable to Portland’s strengths.

In the all-important series with their division rivals, Denver and Utah, I see success overall.  The Blazers should be able to split the series with the Nuggets, a difficult opponent for Portland.  I think the games in Denver will be tough losses again.  The Nuggets are a great basketball team, but they also have some key role players who become Blazer-killers to an even greater degree in the “Pepsi Center” (J.R. Smith and Birdman, I’m talking about you…).  Portland should be a notch better than Utah this year.  The Jazz simply aren’t as deep or as talented as the Blazers.  I think they’ll win the series 3-1, including a big win at the Delta Center.

The Spurs are going to expose Portland’s need for grit and rebounding off the bench this year, causing them to trade for a big before the 2010 NBA trade deadline (yep, I’m going to get that specific!  Why not?).  I think they might win the series with Portland this year 2-1, with DeJuan Blair playing a crucial role in some tough road wins at the Rose Garden. The Spurs figure to be “the sticking point” for Portland in the regular season this year, but I also think they’ll be the team that gives Portland a blue-print for being a successful playoff team in the process.  I want the Blazers to score a second-round matchup with San Antonio this year, and I think the chances are good.  If the Blazers can make the leap, we could see a “changing of the guard” as they become a playoff powerhouse built on defense and half-court execution (in the San Antonio model).  I think the Spurs did a tremendous job this off-season, however, so that would be a lot to ask for this year.  Still, it’s definitely within the realm of possibilities…

That’s a wrap.  I made a lot of predictions here, and I’m sure a lot of them will be totally debunked.   The Western Conference is loaded again, and it’s impossible to predict what’s going to happen due to injuries, trades, etc.  Still, it was fun to throw out a set of educated guesses for what promises to be another great Blazers season.

Tell me what you think:

Tags: Andre Miller, Brandon Roy, Chris Andersen, Chris Paul, Dallas Mavericks, DeJuan Blair, Denver Nuggets, Dirk Nowitzki, Elton Brand, Emeka Okafor, Golden State Warriors, J.R. Smith, Jason Terry, Martell Webster, Peja Stojakovic, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs, Steve Nash, Utah Jazz