Who Starts SF for the 2009-10 Trail Blazers?

Today I’m trying something new.  I have a buddy that I talk sports with all the time who goes by the nickname “Knife“ .  He’s another NBA junkie and Portland Trail Blazers fan (whatever it may seem, trust me, he’s a fan).  We don’t always agree, but those arguments often turn out to be entertaining (in my opinion), and he always impresses me with his justifications even if I don’t share his opinion on a given issue.  Our most recent “discussion” centered around who should start at small forward (SF) for the Blazers on opening night.  I think it captures one of the most intriguing stories heading into Portland’s training camp, so I’m making it our first joint-post in a series called “Knife vs. Jet City” - hope you enjoy:

Knife:

One of the seemingly unresolved issues with the Portland Trail Blazers this year is whom to start at SF.  The 3 logical choices seem to be:

1.  Nicolas Batum
2.  Martell Webster
3.  Travis Outlaw

It seems like Nate has been pretty reluctant to fully unleash Travis into the starting lineup with any consistency the last few years due to his inclination to have Outlaw’s somewhat explosive (albeit not terribly reliable) offense coming off the bench.  So assuming he sticks with that strategy, let’s assume the choices are down to Batum and Webster. This is an argument for why Nicolas Batum should be the starter .

Physically speaking, both players have somewhat similar body types:
Webster:  6′7″, 235 lbs
Batum:  6′8″, 200 lbs

Both of them seem to have an inclination to stay on the perimeter and catch and shoot open 3pters, which is really what the Blazers need them to do anyway so they can create better spacing.  Although Batum has only been in the league for a year, I’d still argue that he shot the 3pter reliably enough last year to be considered just as proficient as Webster in that regard.  I think Webster might have the slight edge in being able to create his own shot, but that might just be a product of more experience; I don’t think either player will ever really excel in that area.  So one could say that their offensive games also have a lot of similarities.  However, there are several other areas in which Batum stands out over Webster.

First of all, Webster is coming off of a major foot injury last year that caused him to miss 81 games .  So one could argue that he might not even be fully recovered, and it would be best to ease him off the bench anyway.  Secondly, it is pretty much widely agreed throughout the league that Batum’s potential is quite high and exceeds that of Webster.  Batum has been compared a lot to Tayshaun Prince (although this is considered a compliment, I’m guessing Batum’s ceiling is probably higher than this) and during the offseason when the Blazers were trying to negotiate trades with other teams, the player whose name kept being brought up by other teams was Batum.  Teams recognize the value and potential of a player like him, and thankfully the Blazers do as well and opted to keep him.  Webster can be a serviceable role-player, but I don’t think his cap is much higher than what we’ve already seen.

The most important difference between the two as I see it is on the defensive end. While Webster is not the worst defender, he is certainly not a defensive stopper and he often loses his man or is prone to get taken off the dribble.  Batum, on the other hand plays defense remarkably well for someone having only been in the league for 1 year.  Something to note is that although Batum and Webster are similar in height, Batum has a vastly longer wingspan .  Webster has been measured to have an above average wingspan of 6′11″ or so while Batum’s wingspan has been measured anywhere from 7′1″ to 7′4″.  This is a decided advantage when it comes to assisting in defense and it shows in Batum’s hustle stats (steals and blocks), as he was basically able to match Webster’s hustle stats from 2008 (28 minutes, 0.6 steals, 0.4 blocks) in considerably less minutes (18 minutes, 0.6 steals, 0.5 blocks).  I’m betting that given the opportunity for more minutes and experience this year, this discrepancy will only increase in Batum’s favor.

When it comes to defense, bringing Webster off the bench makes more sense.  He’ll be playing against the other team’s second unit for the majority of the time and so his lack of defensive presence will be masked and won’t be as much of a liability.  If he were starting, he’d have to play against more skilled players and so his modest offensive game would be cancelled out by his defensive shortcomings.  However, since Batum’s strength is his defensive presence it makes sense to start him against the other team’s best players.  His length and wingspan can provide for disrupting passing lanes and blocking or altering shots.  One clear example in the defensive capabilities of Batum was evidenced in a game last year against Utah when Deron Williams was torching the Blazers (he ended up with 35 pts on 12-18 shooting).  Nate decided to switch the defensive assignments and put Batum on Deron – the end result was that Deron stopped scoring and looked to pass more.  Batum’s length and quickness disrupted Deron noticeably.  It is pretty impressive to have a 6′8″ forward with the ability contain one of the elite point guards in the league.

In conclusion, it just makes more basketball sense to start Batum and bring Webster off the bench.  Webster is coming off a significant injury that caused him to miss all but 5 minutes of last year.  Webster’s lack of defensive presence is less harmful off the bench where his modest offensive skills can give the Blazers a boost.  The first unit probably has enough scoring currently, and Batum does not need the ball or to score to make an impact defensively on the game.  Conversely, if Webster isn’t scoring (which they probably wouldn’t need him to do that much if he was with the other starters), he isn’t being that useful to the team.  Lastly, it is widely recognized that Batum’s potential exceeds that of Webster’s and hence the league-wide interest in acquiring him.  So why not let him develop against the league’s best players?  He had the chance to do so last year and vastly exceeded expectations, so it doesn’t really make a lot of sense to take a step backwards in his development. It’s true Batum *could* do well off the bench, but his strengths just seem to fit better with the starting lineup and that’s where his value is maximized for the Blazers.

Jet City:

The starting small forward for the Portland Trail Blazers, on opening night (Oct. 27th), should be Martell Webster .  Wait, who ?  That’s right, I said Martell Webster.  The Blazers’ #1 pick in 2005, the guy they loved so much that they traded down from #4 to #6 in the lottery, passing up on Chris Paul (ouch), and then made the unofficial “face of the franchise”.  You know, that guy?  I know it sounds nuts to say that a player who hasn’t seen the court for a year should be in the starting unit on opening night, but bear with me.

Let me kick this off by saying that I absolutely love Nicolas Batum.  If the question were “who should be the future starting small forward for Portland” (even next year), or “who should be starting at small forward for Portland in the 2010 playoffs”, I could easily be arguing another position.  I think Batum has all of the tools to be a star for Portland, just not quite yet .  Yep, the crux of my argument is timing .  I love you Nic, you’re the one for my Blazers, the timing isn’t just quite right for you to start.  You’re only 21, have only begun to scrape the tip of the iceberg of your potential.  Also, we’ve still got some issues to work through with our old flame (”old” only in the Trail Blazers sense, at age 23…), Marty.

Since we’re talking about who should go into the starting unit, let’s talk about the chemistry of that group.  I don’t care what Nate McMillan has said, the starting point guard is going to be Andre Miller.  He’ll be in the back court with Roy, a recently-extended Aldridge will man the 4-spot, and Greg Oden will start at center.  When assessing who should start at small forward, we should look at the skills that will best complement this cast.  The top need, without a doubt, is a long-range shooter to stretch the defense.  Brandon Roy greatly improved his three point shooting last year, and I expect he’ll be even better this year, but he’s not the guy that you put on the three point line to space the floor.  Sure, he might be able to knock those shots down, but it’s a waste of your best asset to stick him in that role.  Last year, Steve Blake did a great job in this capacity, but his replacement, Andre Miller, is not a good long range shooter.  To me, that means that you can’t spend your starting SF purely on hustle and defense, neither of which Martell Webster is a zero at, I might point out.  Nope, that starting 3 has to be a knock-out, spot-up three point shooter.  A healthy Martell Webster is your best option to fill that need (39% at a healthy volume in 2007-08).

We’ve talked about maturity and fit with the starters, now let’s turn to something that I believe is even more important: Martell Webster’s trade value.  When a guy misses a year with a foot injury, and that player is signed to a long-term deal no less, his value is more or less negative.  The Blazers couldn’t give away Martell Webster right now.  Last October, they signed him to a 4 year, $20,000,000 contract (lasting through 2012).  Portland signed Webster coming off of a foot surgery, and in doing so took a huge risk.  They probably figured the risk was worth it, since the price tag on his extension was tempered by his injured status.  Well, they got burned.  Webster has only just been cleared for full activity, and the jury is still out on his health.  Webster’s contract is a liability right now, and the only way to reclaim his value is to display his health over the course of a season.  He won’t shed the “injury stigma” sitting on Portland’s bench.  Compared to Webster, Batum’s contract is a bargain ($8.7 million for 5 years).  He’s two years younger, so the expectation is not there for him to play starter’s minutes.  He’s signed through 2013, so there’s plenty of time for him to grow into the role.  Batum is the future, but for Webster, 2009-10 is really “make it or break it” time.  Webster needs one last chance at the job, and the Blazers desperately need him to display his talent and skill over a meaningful stretch of starter’s minutes in order for him to be an asset rather than a liability.

Knife:

I agree that Webster can stroke it from the 3pt line.  But I would also argue that Batum had pretty good success from that range last year as well.  Is Webster more proficient in this area than Batum?  It’s possible.  However, even if that is true, it’s not by such a great margin that it would offset Batum’s decided defensive advantage over Webster.

I’m a proponent of showcasing a player for trading purposes – if the situation calls for it.  However, I don’t believe starting Webster over Batum for the purpose of increasing his trade value is a good fit for the Blazers at this time.  His contract is roughly $20 million over the next 4 years.  If this offseason has shown us one thing, it’s that teams are extremely gun-shy about spending money for fear of paying the luxury tax .  If you are not a premier player that is highly sought (e.g. Lebron, Wade, etc), then teams are really not going to go out of their way to put themselves in a position to pay a luxury tax for you.  So I would argue that even *if* you managed to showcase Webster and proved that he is healthy and could last the whole season, teams would offer very little for his services anyway because they’re not opening up their checkbooks like they used to in recent years.

More importantly, starting Webster over Batum to increase his trade value is a bad idea because it will very likely cost them games .  It’s not like the Blazers are in a rebuilding phase; they won 54 games last year in a very, very competitive Western Conference.  This year figures to be no different and they need every single win they can muster.  Since they won a very impressive 54 games last year (with Batum starting 79 of them), this clearly shows that they can certainly win a lot of games with him starting.  The present just isn’t the time to be showcasing Webster for trade purposes when the Blazers can win games NOW with Batum starting, and have a chance to really go deep into the playoffs this year.

Jet City:

Well, my friend certainly has made a great argument on why it makes basketball sense to start Batum over Webster this year.  I could not have drawn up a better statistical, physical, and skill-set  comparison of the two players.  I completely agree that Batum has the higher ceiling both as a defender and overall (and said as much in my opening).

One point made by Knife that I cannot fully agree with centers around Webster’s defense. I do agree that Batum has more potential to be a lock-down defender, but I also think that Webster has some important advantages at this point.  Two years older and simply a bigger guy, Webster has a strength advantage over Batum.  Portland has to contend with some beasts at SF (Anthony, Durant, and Artest being prime examples).  Webster has 35 lbs on Batum and is less likely to be abused in the post in these key matchups.  Again, I think Batum is going to be the better defender, but I disagree that Webster’s only contribution to the starting unit would come in the form of offense.

One issue that Knife hasn’t touched on much, and which also happens to be one of the main thrusts of my argument for Webster to start, is the fit of either player with who we know will make up the starting and second units for Portland.  He mentioned that Batum doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective, which I think is a very good point.  However, it’s also true for Webster.  Martell’s outside shooting makes him a great complement to a unit with Roy (often double-teamed) and the two big men (Aldridge, Oden) who figure to see more double-teams in the post.  While Batum has shown some promise in the area, Webster is still the better three-point shooter .  One of Webster’s biggest strengths is his spot up shooting, so why load him into a lineup that almost assuredly includes Steve Blake and Rudy Fernandez, who might even be better long range shooters than he is?  Isn’t Webster a bit redundant to this cast of folks?  Outside of Przybilla, isn’t the most glaring need for the “white team” squarely in the categories of defense and hustle stats?

Secondly, a pure statistical comparison ignores the financial reality of Webster’s $20,000,000 guaranteed contract.  If Portland can recoup some of that investment while also arguably making the starting unit better, isn’t that an overall win?  It’s not as if I’m arguing that Batum go to the D-League.  In fact, I’d be fine with an even split of minutes at the position.  Again, I LOVE Nic Batum!  My problem is with putting Webster in a situation that ill befits his biggest strengths and abilities to contribute to Portland’s success.  If Webster succeeds, his trade value increases, and there’s a chance he’ll switch back to being a valued asset rather than a “bad contract”.  In fact, the best situation, both for Portland and for Webster, might be for the Blazers to trade him at some point (thus opening up the opportunity for Batum to play “starter’s minutes”, if he continues to develop and prove he’s ready for that).  Comparing players in a vacuum is interesting, but it does not capture the big picture.

If you’ve been reading my blog over the past few weeks, you know that I think this is the year the Blazers make the leap and establish themselves as a real contender.  Andre Miller is going to help the team with execution in key stretches where the Blazers were befuddled by double-teams on Brandon Roy last year.  Roy is going to assert himself as one of the top stars in the league, and LaMarcus Aldridge is going to make a strong bid for the All Star team.  Greg Oden, the starting center from day 1, will determine the ceiling on their season depending on his health and ability to reclaim some of his incredible potential.  Now, notice that I’m about three sentences into this exposition and I haven’t said a thing about the small forward position!  In the grand scheme of things, this decision is rather tertiary.  It’s interesting to talk about because it’s an unresolved issue, but I firmly believe that the Blazers don’t need to be obsessing about finding the absolute perfect starting five.  In fact, it might not even make sense to start their five best players every night.  Batum is a better prospect than Webster, I’ve already said that.  This isn’t about who is better though, it’s about timing, fit, and what makes the most strategic sense for Portland in the here and now.

Now, tell us what you think!

Tags: Andre Miller, Brandon Roy, Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge, Martell Webster, Nicolas Batum, Rudy Fernandez, SF, Small Forward, Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw