Fantasy Impact: “The Sleeper”
September 26th, 2009 | by jetcity |
The NBA season is rolling around soon, with training camps opening soon and the preseason on deck. With that comes fantasy basketball, a favorite pass-time of mine. I’m sure there are some fantasy drafts going on already, but the majority won’t be starting for a couple weeks. That, of course, means it’s time to be talking about sleepers and breakout candidates now. In the next few weeks, the hype engines will be firing up. In fantasy sports, a favorite topic is draft “sleepers,” a term derived from the saying “everyone is sleeping on this person” (meaning they are flying under the radar). Identifying the right sleepers can be the difference between winning a fantasy draft and losing it. Everyone can do a reasonable job in the early rounds of a draft by following the rankings created from last year’s stats and the input of different fantasy experts, but picking out the right sleepers can win the late draft rounds for a fantasy basketball manager.
If you read my blog post about the fantasy impact of the Blazers signing Andre Miller, you saw a lot of information about how I think some key Trail Blazers are going to fare, statistically, this season. You read about Brandon Roy’s legit status as a first round pick in 12-team leagues. You heard about role players who will lose fantasy value, and those who will retain some. Roy and Aldridge will be high picks in fantasy drafts, and can in no way be “sleepers”. Players like Andre Miller and Rudy Fernandez are interesting fantasy prospects, but their potential is severely limited. The really interesting sleepers are the ones with high potential, and usually high risk and uncertainty to go along with it. I don’t know a more obvious segue than that for broaching who we’ll be talking about today. Okay fine, the picture was a dead giveaway anyways; this bit is going to be about the biggest question mark for Portland, in a real-life and fantasy capacity, heading into 2009-10. It’s time to talk about the big guy…
I find it funny that I cringe whenever I start to write about Greg Oden. It’s like I’m afraid to curse him somehow. Just don’t talk about him! No bad news is good news! Greg Oden’s body and psyche have proven so capricious and sensitive over the past two years that we’re all scared to touch him, and that applies to writing about him if you’re a fan. I can’t imagine a safer way to ease into talking about Greg Oden’s upcoming season than to analyze his potential fantasy value, though, so I’m going to use that subject to break the ice for BlazersTrail…
With that setup, you’re probably expecting me to trash Greg Oden. Actually, I think Oden has the potential to be big this year, both in an actual sense and for fantasy. For the Blazers, he’s probably the key to the season, as he determines the ceiling of what they can accomplish in the playoffs. Given the investment that the Portland franchise has made in Oden, the opportunity is going to be there for him to succeed. I expect him to start and play over 30 minutes a game, his health and ability to avoid fouls permitting. Everyone in Portland wants to see Oden succeed, and his destiny is truly his own. In fact, it’s hard to find a more potent package when it comes to latent talent and a guaranteed role than Greg Oden. He’s got the all important “upside,” but he’s also loaded with risk. His stats from last year, along with his injury stigma, are going to weigh down his average draft position (ADP) in fantasy drafts. He could slip as far as the 12th round in some drafts (probably not those taking place in the Pacific Northwest, where everyone follows the Blazers closely). In Yahoo fantasy leagues, he’s currently ranked 128th overall! Sure, he’s got downside, but you could not find a “bigger” diamond in the rough than that…
There’s a lot to be optimistic about when it comes to Oden’s upcoming season. For one, he’s healthy. He’s 2 years removed from his microfracture surgery, which is usually the time span for a player to fully regain explosion in the repaired knee. He’s also reportedly happier and more relaxed after his summer in Ohio. This is important, as there was a lot of press about how Oden labored with depression last year due to his inability to meet lofty expectations in Portland. The title of this post is even a play on some of those stories, such as the reported events where Oden would slip into Paul Allen’s special room on the Blazer team jet to sleep rather than mingle with his teammates. Well, here’s to hoping that none of that moping around happens this year. It seems like the raincloud over Oden’s head has cleared to a large degree, at least.
Fantasy sports are all about stats, so let’s look at Oden’s stats last year:
Greg Oden, Statistics 2008-2009:
| Sample | Min | PTS | FG% | FT% | AST | RBD | ST | BLK | TO |
| Games Started (39) | 23:18 | 8.7 | 56.8% | 62.5% | 0.6 | 7.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| All Games (61) | 21:30 | 8.9 | 56.4% | 63.7% | 0.5 | 7.0 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
There are two rows, as I think it’s interesting to look at the split between the 39 games where he started and the full 61 that he played. Of those two aggregates, I think the games started (GS) is more meaningful. Oden is going to start this year, so I like to look at how he did against the best centers in the league when projecting what he’ll do in 2009-10. 9 points, 7 rebounds, and 1 block are not very productive for a fantasy center, especially one that shoots poorly from the free throw line and averages 1.6 turnovers. The key stat above, however, is the minutes played by Oden. Only 21:30-23:18 minutes a game, and you can blame 90% of that on his problems with fouling. Oden was plagued with foul trouble all season, partially due to problems moving his feet on defense, but also very much attributable to an awful habit of dropping his arms when defenders shot. If Oden could have been more disciplined about keeping his arms up, I’m convinced he could have averaged closer to 25 minutes a night. This has to have been one of the things he worked on over the off-season. I’m expecting improvement in both areas: lateral quickness (hopefully he comes in weighing closer to 265 than 285 this fall, too) and controlling his arms when he’s playing position defense in the post.
Here’s what Oden’s stats projected to 30 minutes a game, based on his production from last year:
Greg Oden, Statistics, 30 minute projections:
| Sample | Min | PTS | FG% | FT% | AST | RBD | ST | BLK | TO |
| Games Started (39) | 30:00 | 11.2 | 56.8% | 62.5% | 0.8 | 9.4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| All Games (61) | 30:00 | 12.4 | 56.4% | 63.7% | 0.7 | 9.8 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
That’s looking a lot better (again, I think the projection off of the “Games Started” sample is more meaningful). Now, keep in mind that this is with zero improvement. This is just the same Greg Oden from last year, projected to 30 minutes of court time. It’s an imperfect model, as he’d have much better stats if was actually able to sustain 30 minutes a game – some of those turnovers are the offensive fouls that forced him off the court. Some of his block attempts, whistled for fouls, would have been actual blocked shots if he was 100%. In fact, I would say that the above stats are about the floor of what a healthy Oden (notice I said a “healthy Oden”) would do in 2009-10. That’s already serviceable numbers for a fantasy center. Not great numbers, but much better than a 12th or 13th round pick. What if Oden improved, which I would term a likely event? What would a more confident, seasoned, and explosive Greg Oden do? Here are my “optimistic” projections for Oden this season:
Greg Oden, Projected Statistics 2009-10, “Optimistic”:
| Min | PTS | FG% | FT% | AST | RBD | ST | BLK | TO |
| 30:40 | 12.1 | 58.0 | 68.0 | 0.8 | 10.2 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Yes, these are optimistic numbers. However, I wouldn’t even call this the ceiling on what Oden could potentially do this season, and I don’t think it’s that unrealistic. These numbers are actually quite good for a fantasy center, comparable to players like Brook Lopez and Al Horford from 2008-09. Lopez was the 25th ranked player in Yahoo fantasy leagues last year (Horford was 57th). Am I saying Oden could be a 3rd round value? No, I think that’s going too far. He’s not going to shoot the ball as well as Lopez from the free throw line, for one, and he’s not going to score as much as Lopez did on a loaded Blazers roster (Lopez averaged 13ppg last year). Still, it illustrates Oden’s upside this year. He’s one of the ultimate risk/reward picks in the draft.
If the reward is this high, then how early should one reach for Oden if you buy into his status as a “sleeper” like I’m recommending? It’s up to you, but I think you should take him as early as the 8th round, and a lot sooner if he looks explosive in preseason. The risk with Oden is all in the injury department, as his role is actually quite safe. Again, Portland wants Oden to start and succeed, so he’s going to get as many chances as his body will allow to secure that role. He has the potential to truly break out and realize some of the potential that made him a #1 overall draft pick, too, so he’s worth reaching for if you like his outlook.
Tell me what you think!
Tags: Al Horford, Andre Miller, Brook Lopez, Center, Fantasy Basketball, Greg Oden, Portland Trail Blazers
By confused on Sep 28, 2009
Using 08-09 numbers to predict 09-10 numbers I came up with this:
30/21.5 = 1.395
Points (estimate for 30 min) = 1.395 * 8.9 = 12.41 pts/game
Reb (est for 30 min) = 1.395 * 7 = 9.77 rebounds per game
Algebraically, GO’s 30 minute stats (based on last years production) are much more favorable. I guess I’m just wondering how you calculated your projections if they weren’t done with simple math.
By jetcity on Sep 28, 2009
There’s a bunch of odd-ball games last year because of his injuries, coming off the bench, etc., so I didn’t use them all in my sample (I used the games he started). I think a lot of folks are going to have the same question though, so I might throw in another table row that takes the aggregated stats for the entire slate and projects them to 30 minutes. The points might be better, but the turnovers will be higher too.
Update: I went ahead and changed the existing table to use the full 61 game sample. I’ll add the other later today, with some explanation of what games I kept.
Update: Okay, I added the other sample to his table for 2008-2009 (I really shouldn’t have done anything like that without putting it in for reference, anyway), and then put in two projections, one using Games Started (GS) and the other using all 61 games. I still think the GS sample is more meaningful, but now both are there for comparison. I also had thrown out some games where he got injured, originally, but I decided to undo that and go with the straight aggregate for games started (right off his splits from last year), since it’s not really fair to chuck injury games when every other player in the league is going to have their handful of those (plus G.O. has a pretty decent chance of doing that again this year in a few games… let’s just hope it doesn’t happen!)…
By Bay Area Sports Guy on Sep 30, 2009
I think you hit on the most important point when it comes to predicting Oden’s 2009/10 season: his weight.
I don’t think Oden was necessarily fat last year, as he obviously hit the weights while recovering from knee surgery … but he was definitely a little Shaqish. The problem is, Oden was a high-flier in college. Who can forget that block he had in the NCAA Tournament when he looked like he was playing against a bunch of midgets? (Obviously not Kevin Pritchard)
While Shaq has caught flak throughout his career for knocking the crap out of people, his fundamentals are quietly so sound that he’s been able to dominate without jumping all that high for over a decade. That footwork advantage is also what made him the most difficult person to officiate in the game.
Oden, not so much. You mentioned how he puts his arms down when defenders go up, and his footwork also gets him into trouble because he still relies on the lateral quickness and hops he used to have. If Oden comes into camp at 265, he’ll be a different player. His joints will be able to withstand an entire season, he’ll stay out of foul trouble and he’ll be able to grow into the 2.5 bpg, 12 rpg guy everyone thought he’d be after he was drafted.
If he’s the same weight he was last season, forget all the projections and just slot him with the same stats he had last year … and a spot in the 12th round of all non-Pacific Northwest fantasy drafts.
By Jet City on Sep 30, 2009
That’s an interesting comparison with Shaq that you make. I was disappointed with Oden’s slow feet last year, especially after reading so many scouting reports touting it as a strength, and seeing a slim-waisted version of him dominate as a Freshman at OSU. Yeah, I agree, a lot of it was that he was playing too heavy.
I wanted to find a reading on his weight at the start of training camp this year. There’s a ton of hype already about him reporting “slimmer,” but no exact measurement that I can find yet. In the pictures, he does look lighter. Also, there’s the report today that he tied Aldridge in the conditioning test, coming in second overall on the entire team. So… promising so far (knock on wood).