Talkin’ NBA Preseason: Blazers vs. Kings

The NBA preseason is finally here! The Blazers kicked off with a back-to-back set of games against the Sacramento Kings. Now, I’ve been reading Larry Yocum’s column on the Kings regularly (as should you, its great stuff). I thought it would be a great idea to ask Larry for five questions that he had about Portland after observing these same preseason games. Larry also asked me for five questions about the Kings. The Kings are loaded with young talent and are in the midst of an intriguing rebuilding project, so you should check Larry’s site for his response (especially if you do fantasy sports).

Okay, I’m going to jump right into Larry’s great set of questions about the Blazers:

Larry:

“Andre Miller: Solid point guard, but will there be a chemistry issue? He said initially that he would be okay coming off the bench, but has since changed his tune and would like to start. He is a player that is used to running the show and that includes being a ball dominant guard. Steve Blake was very good at bringing the ball up and getting out of Roy’s way to camp on the three point line. Miller doesn’t shoot threes. I’m potentially worried about Miller hurting Roy’s fantasy value, disrupting the chemistry in the offense, and Miller’s own fantasy value will probably take a hit this year. It would also seem to kill the Rudy Fernandez hype machine from last season. Fernandez played a lot with Roy manning the point and Roy isn’t leaving the floor very often, so it would seem the minutes that Fernandez received last year will go to Miller. Thoughts? Sorry for the multiple part question but Miller is a domino that will impact several aspects of the team.”

Larry poses a great question here. In my article about the fantasy impact of the Andre Miller signing , you’ll see a player a breakdown of how I think Miller’s presence will affect some key Blazers, statistically. What have I learned from the two games with the Kings? Well, I’m less worried about Roy and Miller having on-court chemistry, for one. They look good together, and I think they both make the game easier for each other. Roy’s assist numbers probably will dip slightly, but he’ll have better shots, take more threes, and he’ll have more energy in the fourth quarter due to having some help initiating the offense in the time leading up to the critical stretch (given how good Roy is in the fourth when he’s dog-tired, that’s really bad news for Blazer opponents). Miller is a lot like Roy in that he’s cerebral and plays under control. Running with the Blazers the past two nights, he looked calm and efficient (averaging 13 pts, 4 assists in only 25 minutes of court time). He knows how good his new teammates are, and he already seems to know just how to use them. This is an extremely smart, experienced cat that seems fully cognizant that he’s in the right place, and at the right time, to finish his career with a shot at a championship. No worries about chemistry at all.

Will Miller start? Absolutely. Nate’s talk of Miller needing to earn the job is just Nate saying the right things. Miller does need to earn the job, but he’ll do that by just being Andre Miller over the next few weeks. Unless Miller is hurt, Blake is the back-up and he won’t have consistent fantasy value.

Larry touched on Rudy Fernandez. Recently we heard wind that McMillan plans to have Rudy handle the ball more and initiate in the second unit. Here is yet another indicator that the second unit point guard is going to be Steve Blake. Would McMillan be talking about running the offense through Rudy if Miller was in the backcourt with him? I don’t think so. I think Rudy’s minutes will be similar to last years, around 23-25 a game, and that he’ll have stretches where he’s “the man” on offense for the second unit. He’s still a fantasy basketball sleeper and he’s going to drain a ton of three pointers again.

Larry:

“Greg Oden: Every report out of camp has been positive. Is he ready to stay healthy and become the player that scouts predicted when he went number one overall or will he be an injury risk once again and player that only gets 25 minutes on the floor?”

Yes, the hype engine has been on full tilt for Oden for a while. Blazer fans have been through quite a set of ups and downs with G.O., so we’ve all been a little nervous for him to actually take the court. By far the biggest story out of the two preseason games against the Kings is now great Oden has looked. His offense is much better than I expected it to be at this point, and he’s absolutely draining his free throws. Last year, I would always note that Oden actually has a great free throw stroke. He shot a poor percentage, but he wasn’t throwing up horrible looking bricks like Shaq or Dwight. You could tell that once he gained some confidence, he was actually going to be a decent free throw shooter. This is huge, given how many times he might go to the line (especially with the scab refs carrying the whistles…). Oden also just looks lighter and quicker. Granted, Oden has a history of looking good against the Kings (particularly against Spencer Hawes), so let’s just wait to see how he does against other preseason opponents. Still, if he can build on what we’re seeing in preseason, and if he stays healthy, he’s going to blow away my 12 pt, 10 rebound, 1.8 block projections in the column on I did on Oden from a couple weeks ago.

Oden’s lines from the two Kings’ preseason games:

Oct. 6th: 18 points, 9 rebounds in 26 minutes (10-12 FT).

Oct. 7th: 20 points, 12 rebounds in 26 minutes (6-7 FT).

Larry:

“LaMarcus Aldridge: Will a healthy Oden hurt Aldridge’s overall numbers? Also, Aldridge looks like a very polished player after a few years in the league and posted very similar numbers the last two years. Is he at his peak now, or do you think that he can step up his game to another level?”

I don’t think a healthy Oden will necessarily hurt Aldridge’s numbers, Larry. If you look at last year, Oden and Przybilla basically functioned as two halves of a starting center. If Oden breaks out, he’ll take minutes and production away from Przybilla, but not so much from Aldridge. Aldridge averaged 7 rebounds while on the court with Oden and Przybilla (who is actually a much better rebounder than either). “The Vanilla Gorilla” eats up rebounds when he’s on the floor, so if Aldridge spends more time out there with Oden, he might actually get a rebound or two more per game. I think you’re going to see Aldridge blossom even more offensively this year while continuing to rebound at a reasonable rate. He should also improve in the area of shooting and free throw percentages.  He gave a preview of this in the opener, when he came out and lit up the Kings in the first half, leading to a team-high 20 points in only 27 minutes. I think he could be a slightly better version of David West, statistically, in 2009-10.

Larry:

“Who gets the majority of the minutes at the small forward position? You have Webster, Outlaw, Udoka and Batum all capable of starting and all four players seem decent enough. It seems to be the one position where the Blazers either need a guy to step up or could upgrade in some way. Are any of those guys going to be capable of matching up against a LeBron James or Ron Artest when it matters most? They will even face Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony on a regular basis in their own division. Is this an area of concern for the Blazers?”

This is the one real position battle going on in the Blazers preseason. Batum is the incumbent, and he’ll be the starter unless Webster really makes a statement over the next few weeks. If you read my collaborative work with my friend Knife a few weeks back, you heard my argument that Webster might actually be the best fit with the starting unit. I still think that might be the case, and that it might actually be better for the Blazers strategically if Webster can start and succeed (as it will recover some of his trade value), but it seems pretty clear right now that Batum is the likely starter come opening tip. McMillan is going a little easy on him because he’s banged up from competition in Europe over the summer (only 9 minutes in the opener after starting), but I expect he’ll log heavy minutes in some preseason games coming up. If he can demonstrate confidence knocking down open threes, he’ll keep the starting job.

One notable from the opener against the Kings is that Webster saw extended run (a team-high 31 minutes). He looked rusty, but his foot is apparently fine. This is great news for the Blazers, and definitely means that there’s a legitimate position battle going on at SF in Portland.

Larry:

“Do the Blazers have all of the pieces to challenge the Lakers? Will it happen this year or are they still a piece or two and a year or two away from truly challenging the elite teams in the league?”

Larry, you really covered your bases there by saying “a piece or two or a year or two away”… Honestly, I think the answer is that they already have all of the key pieces to challenge the Lakers. They are still missing a banger at the backup power forward position, a need that I think they will trade in order to fill before the deadline this year. The expendable piece for that trade is most likely Travis Outlaw, but they might also look to trade Webster if Batum continues to impress and Webster plays well enough to reclaim some of his trade value in the eyes of other GM’s in the league. I also think that they’re unsure what to do with Jerryd Bayless, who isn’t proving that he can play PG in the NBA right now. However, in terms of the key pieces, I think they already have everything. Roy is going to show everyone that he’s a legitimate Superstar in the NBA this year, Aldridge is going to be resigned , and his game should continue to evolve as he makes a bid for the All Star team. Nicolas Batum and Martell Webster could both be long term solutions at the starting SF position, and Andre Miller simultaneously gives them a veteran influence and a savvy floor general.

As I said earlier, I think you probably covered yourself when you added “a year or two,” as I honestly don’t know if the Blazers can beat the Lakers in a 7 game series this year. My hope is that they’ll get into a playoff series with either L.A. or San Antonio . No matter the outcome, the battle-test should give them the experience to bid for a championship within the next few years.

I’m an optimist. Could they beat the Lakers and win the West this year? Absolutely, they belong on the short list of teams with a shot at that upset. I don’t think it’s likely, but they also beat my expectations (and pretty much everyone else’s) by winning 54 games last year. The key? Greg Oden. Roy is already playing at an elite level, and Aldridge was already knocking on the door of the All Star game last year. Andre Miller is a proven NBA floor leader. What is Greg Oden in 2009-10? He sets the ceiling on what they can do in the playoffs.

Tags: Andre Miller, Brandon Roy, Greg Oden, Jerryd Bayless, Joel Przybilla, LaMarcus Aldridge, Martell Webster, Nicolas Batum, Rudy Fernandez, Spencer Hawes, Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw