The McMillan Shuffle

Half way through the preseason, it’s clear that Nate McMillan really is leaving three of the starting lineup positions wide open (at least for now).  Greg Oden, considered by nearly everyone to be a no-brainer as starting center this year, came off the bench in the Blazer’s fifth preseason game against the Jazz.  That’s justified I guess </sarcasm>, Oden had only been dominating in the first four Blazers’ preseason games.  McMillan sent Oden to the bench along with Andre Miller, who’s probably the actual focal point of any lineup controversy brewing in Portland.  It’s not entirely clear why the two are moving as a pair right now, but Oden’s stellar play through four preseason games makes this look like “throwing the baby out with the bath water”.  Oden’s confidence had to be soaring, and you worry that benching him might put a damper on that…  Still, I doubt that Oden will read much of anything into the lineups until the end of preseason, when more formal announcements about the opening night configuration are made.  Oden needs to start.

What about Miller?  He’s played well, statistically, in preseason.  His chemistry with Brandon Roy – aye, there’s the rub.  Roy seems to be in a funk alongside Miller, leading many observers to question if the two are the right match in a backcourt together.  Roy and Miller both need to handle the ball to be the most effective.  Roy spent much of the preseason working on improving his effectiveness coming off screens and moving without the ball in preparation for playing with Miller.  So far, this hasn’t materialized.  Roy’s shot hasn’t been falling (a dreadful 32% in four preseason starts), and he’s seemed out of rhythm overall.  Miller, on the other hand, has played well, averaging 15 points and 4 assists on 54% shooting (highlighted by a team-high 25 points against the Suns).  Miller playing well while Roy struggles – hmmm… sounds like a recipe for controversy.  Perhaps this is why McMillan has basically broadcast that he would like to start Blake?  At the same time, he’s made public statements that the outcomes of the first preseason games do not mean that the offense is not going to flow primarily through Roy and Aldridge.  Nate is clearly worried about how the starting lineup has looked with Roy and Miller paired.

The third position that has seen some different looks is small forward.  So far, Batum has started 3 times and Webster twice (actually, Webster has started three times overall, but the third was at SG, with Roy resting a game).  Of the two, Webster has actually looked more impressive.  He injected energy against the Suns on Wednesday, streaking down the court in transition and aggressively pursuing rebounds.  His foot appears to be fine.  Batum has been extremely quiet in preseason, playing scant minutes and making little impact when he does see the court.  This is a bit of a disappointment after his highly-publicized success in the Euros, and puts his incumbency as the Blazers’ starting SF very much at risk.  At this point, the competition seems wide open.  I would still give Batum the advantage, but he’ll need to show something in at least one of the remaining preseason games.  So far, he’s been outplayed by Webster.

The starting SF should really be the one slot up for grabs.  The Blazers desperately need Oden to firmly grasp the starting center position, and he’s done nothing but impress.  It seems odd that McMillan would toy at all in this department given the fragility of the big man’s psyche over the last two years.  Miller has also shown that he’s clearly a better point guard than Blake, so I would be shocked to see him start out in the second unit.  The chemistry with Roy is worrisome at present, but this is only preseason.  I attribute Roy’s poor play to just that – the fact that it’s preseason, more than anything else.  He’s clearly cruising, and waiting for the regular season to start.  If he continues to struggle once the games count, I’ll start asking the same questions that some anxious fans are posing now.  Until then, Brandon Roy is the least of my worries.  I expect him to explode out of the gate this year, no matter who his backcourt mate is.

Miller and Roy haven’t found a rhythm, but this sort of problem is exactly what preseason is for.  I believe that Roy can actually learn some things from Miller over the next few weeks.  For one, Miller does a much better job of getting Greg Oden involved on the offensive end.  With Oden’s improved offensive play, it’s imperative that Roy follow his lead in this particular facet.  Moreover, if Miller’s addition means that Roy has to do less offensively, is that such a bad thing?  Roy’s defense lagged at times last year due to the energy he needed to conserve to carry the team at the offensive end.  If he has more help running the offense, he should have more juice to lock down opposing two-guards.  This would equal more wins for the Blazers, even if it meant less stats for Roy.  Roy’s main priority is winning basketball games, so I doubt he would be disappointed by the trade-off.

For the record, I think Roy can be even better, statistically, once he finds his groove with Miller as a backcourt mate.  Miller will make the game easier for Roy, who will find ways to get better shots by coming off screens and moving without the ball.  Remember, these two have only been playing with each other for a matter of weeks.  The learning process has just begun, but the curve should be steep given the high basketball IQ’s of both players.  I look for the starting lineup to coalesce around Miller, Roy, Aldridge, and Oden over the next two weeks.  The true battle lies at SF, where I see Martell Webster making a legitimate bid to start.  The Blazers may not have a winning preseason record, but they’re gaining insight into the truly important matters regarding team chemistry for the upcoming 2009-10 season.

Tags: Andre Miller, Brandon Roy, Greg Oden, Martell Webster, Nate McMillan, Nicolas Batum, Steve Blake