Continuity Reigns the League (so far…)

The Blazers are at .500 after 6 games, which is disappointing to a lot of fans in Portland.  Given the hype leading into the season, it would have taken at least a 5-1 record to really meet the expectations that had built.  Still, if you take a look around the league, the Blazers aren’t the only team dealing with some “growing pains”.  In fact, many of the teams that used the off-season to “get better” are experiencing pain as they attempt to integrate major pieces.  Like Portland, that pain is taking the form of some tough early-season losses.  Alternatively, teams that have kept continuity, or added only role players, have started off the 2009-10 season hot.

In the 2009 off-season, several teams used free agency and trades to add veteran players hoping to get better.  Richard Jefferson, Shaquille O’Neal, Hedo Turkoglu, Shawn Marion, and Andre Miller each joined teams that were already good, potentially pushing them into an elite class.  Other teams opted to load up on young talent, building a new core (the best example being Detroit, who added Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon).  Now that we have some early returns on these investments, one trend dominates: teams that added major pieces, such as a starter or a reserve that plays starter minutes, have struggled to find chemistry.  Teams that added role players, or those who are only expected to provide a boost with bench minutes (say, 20 minutes), have seen great success.  Is this really surprising?  Adding a major component to any system that has already struck a balance is often disruptive at first.  As one popular new product slogan touts, you sometimes have to “break to build”.  Teams that have added major pieces are basically rebuilding team chemistry while finding a new balance.

Let’s look at the teams that have started off the year with the most success.  Denver has been dominant, with its core members starting off the year at a torrid pace.  Denver’s key addition of the off-season was a rookie, Ty Lawson.  Lawson is not a starter, however, and is only expected to come in and inject energy and offense for Denver’s second unit (something they desperately need with J.R. Smith serving a 7-game suspension).  Denver already needed this sort of contributor, and they really needed it for the games without Smith.  Lawson was able to step into a vacuum, and the expectations for him were not overwhelming as a rookie.  This was a recipe for success.  Meanwhile, Denver’s starters held an advantage over other teams that are integrating new pieces, as their main unit could simply pick up where it left off last year (which was a very good place to begin with).  Another team that has started the year with great success is Boston.  Like Denver, Boston added a role player, but one that they desperately needed at the start of this season due to the absence of another key contributor from last year (Glen Davis).  Rasheed Wallace is a big name, but on the 2009-10 Celtics he’s going to be the sixth man.  Wallace is comfortable with this role, and his game is well suited for it.  With Davis out, there was a vacuum for him to fill in the Boston second unit.  These two anecdotes aren’t the only examples of teams that have kept continuity and seen early-season success.  Miami and Chicago have started off the year hot, and Atlanta looks good with Jamal Crawford in the role of sixth man.

On the flip side, several of the teams that “got better” this off-season have struggled mightily.  Topping this list is Cleveland, San Antonio, Toronto, and of course our Portland Trail Blazers.  Cleveland has looked awful with Shaquille O’Neal so far, with a pace even slower than last year.  The Spurs, highly touted as the team that improved the most this off-season, have looked dismal so far this year.  Richard Jefferson hasn’t played well, and DeJuan Blair is arguably the better addition to their team so far (again, a role player).  Toronto hasn’t seen the returns yet on their highly-publicized “12th hour woo” of Hedo Turkoglu.  Okay, their losses to Dallas and Orlando aren’t that embarrassing, but Memphis?  Turkoglu, the $55 million dollar man, hasn’t played like an All Star so far…  And what of Portland?  The integration of Andre Miller has been rough.  Portland’s first unit is clearly in an awkward period of re-adjustment due to the arrival of Miller, and the team has struggled the most at the beginnings and ends of games when both of its play-makers (Roy, Miller) want to be doing the same sorts of things.

What should we draw from this?  Does it mean that NBA teams should not try to add major pieces during the off-season?  Of course not!  The aim is not to be the hottest team in October and November.  The goal is to be the best team possible in April.

Tags: Andre Miller, Brandon Roy, Greg Oden, Hedo Turkoglu, Rasheed Wallace, Richard Jefferson, Shaquille O'Neal