No Quick Fix?

After another long drought, I’m back to write on the Blazers.  The holiday season tends to command your free time…  It’s not that I’ve been bereft of thoughts on the Blazers; there is obviously plenty to talk about when it comes to our team in Portland.  Unfortunately, the conversation pieces are all concerning right now, with the Blazers nursing a 3-game losing streak over the past few days of unscheduled action.  So, as I’m sure we’re all wondering, what’s wrong with the Blazers?  Of course, there are many contributing factors, some less obvious than others.

Injuries

The Blazers are hurting.  In the 2009 preseason, the Blazers fans and leadership celebrated the team’s depth.  It was even quite common to hear some concern remarked over the team’s depth (especially in this column), as the Blazers appeared to have too much talent and too little minutes to go around.  However, the injuries have struck fast in this young NBA season, and have hit Portland at roughly the same position, offering to test this hypothesis.  Already Dante Cunningham is seeing significant minutes at SF and PF, even starting games while LaMarcus Aldridge sits out with a bruised knee.  Can we blame the performance of the replacements for the losing streak that Portland is on now?  Well, it’s never a good thing to lose games from a potential All Star like LaMarcus Aldridge to injury, but I would argue no.  Cunningham, Webster, Fernandez, and Howard, if not incredibly consistent, have played hard off the bench for Portland.  Injuries are contributing to Portland’s sub-par play, don’t get me wrong, but they are not the team’s biggest problem.

Chemistry

The biggest issue that Portland faces, currently, is the lack of team chemistry that has been evident all season (to varying degrees), but is most illustrated by poor play at the starts and ends of games.  These phases of the game are the most important.  The starting unit of a team sets the tone for the game, and can firmly grasp control of a contest if they are efficient and dominant.  In close games, it is again the job of the coach to put the five best players on the floor to close the game.  Thus, a team usually has its five best players in the starting unit, a group that is most often playing together at the start and close of games.  For Portland, the introduction of Andre Miller has really thrown off the chemistry of this group.  Miller has been in and out of the starting unit, and McMillan has had him on the floor at the end of most games.  When taken in isolation, Miller’s play hasn’t been necessarily poor.  He’s pretty much delivering as advertised, to those who knew what to expect from Miller before he arrived in the Northwest.  The real issue here is how he meshes with Brandon Roy – or I might rather say, how he does not.

Brandon Roy, Andre Miller

Brandon Roy and Andre Miller do not play particularly well together.  Yes, you may be able to point at stretches where the Blazers have played well with both on the court, but this is not surprising given that they are both good (or in Roy’s case, great) basketball players.  The issue at hand is that they do not fit well as a tandem.  They are too similar, and do not complement each other’s game.  Roy clearly prefers to play with Steve Blake, who few would argue is a better NBA point guard than Andre Miller.

This is very frustrating for those who were able to forecast this long before Andre Miller put on a Portland jersey.  You didn’t have to be a basketball guru to identify the problems inherent to adding Miller to a backcourt with Brandon Roy.  Portland looked at many other veteran point guards, some who can be considered “upgrades” over Blake, but still in his mold (the most cited is Kirk Hinrich), so it’s obvious that the team’s management recognized this issue as well.  Still, Portland brought in Andre Miller, simply because he was the best of what was left on the market in a “use it or lose it” situation with the team’s available cap space to sign free agents.

What Now?

If the hypothesis that Andre Miller is not the right PG to play with Brandon Roy is being proven out over the course of the Blazers recent woes, then what is the team to do?  Do they make a trade?  Do they bench Andre Miller and get the most out of him that they can in a reserve role?  Is there any other option besides the two above??  The tough answer is that there is most likely no quick fix.  Miller can be traded after Dec. 15th, but can Portland really expect to get good value back for him then?  Few NBA teams are desperate at this point in the season, and Miller’s value isn’t exactly soaring given his statistical performance so far, his age, and Portland’s apparent regression after adding him.  If Portland dealt, it would most likely involve significant risk, taking back another player that is “damaged goods,” either in the form of a current injury or a bad contract.  I don’t expect Portland to tread anywhere near a bad contract after laboring so hard to get rid of them over the past few years.  There are some injured or ailing veterans who might make Portland better, such as Shane Battier (ankle) or Tayshaun Prince (back), but those teams are unlikely to be interested in Andre Miller.

If there’s no quick fix, then is Portland simply stuck?  I think the answer is yes, and that it has been yes all along.  Portland should not have expected the integration of Andre Miller with Roy to be an overnight success.  Rather, a significant adjustment would need to be made on the part of both players.  Had the Blazers started Miller from day 1 and ridden out the rough spots, would they be in a better place now?  Arguably, yes.  They may not have a better record, but Miller would have better trade value if the team really was ready to consider the option on Dec. 15 (and had suitors for Miller).  Also, the constant lineup changes are inherently disruptive to team chemistry.  It’s very hard to identify a consistent, successful NBA team that is constantly shaking up its lineup.  When players know their roles, the team performs better.  Portland is demonstrating this.

Nate McMillan & Brandon Roy

I feel like I’ve worked my way back to these two every time I’ve mulled the Blazer’s current issues.  Roy and McMillan are the team’s leadership.  All solutions, as well as the biggest problems, start and end with these two.  McMillan can begin the process, I believe, by finding consistency in his lineups and substitution patterns. Roy needs improve his playmaking abilities, learning to utilize the new weapons that he has this season (Andre Miller, an improved Greg Oden, offensively).  As has been stated earlier, the true goal is to have the best possible team in April, not November or December.  The Blazers still have tools that they did not possess last year.  Rather than look for quick fixes that might recapture that season in terms of win count, they should be taking the harder route – a path that will require patience and growth (and yes, perhaps some more losing streaks along the way).  There is likely no quick fix, so what choice do they have?

What do you think?

Tags: Andre Miller, Brandon Roy, Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge, Nate McMillan